The model

We do not start from the number.

DraftKings and FanDuel are books. Prime Time Grid is the board. A line is a consensus of money. A break is a collision of facts the money is slow to price: a high-ankle on Saturday, a CB on Achilles, a roof that will be closed, a left tackle who did not practice. That is the work.

1. 01

   Recent health

   Practice participation, designations, and who is active but not themselves. A quarterback returning from an ACL on outdoor grass is not the same player as that quarterback in a dome in December. Questionable is not healthy. Out is not a committee until the inactive list says so.

2. 02

   The field

   Indoor or outdoor is a first-class input. Retractable roofs that will be closed count as indoor. Heat in Jacksonville is a rushing game. A calm 72° at MetLife is a passing night. Kickers live and die on this more than any skill player.

3. 03

   Defense health

   A unit’s reputation is last year. This week is who is walking in. Missing interior, missing edge, missing both starting safeties — those change usage on the other side more than a ranking does.

4. 04

   The break

   Where 01–03 stack. Cooper Rush on the road against a healthy Steelers front is a break. Justin Herbert in a greenhouse against a secondary on IR is a break. We write those in English, then we rank the players they create.

Projected scores on the Grid are ours. They are not a spread and they are not a total you should treat as a posted number. Prime score is a 0–100 blend of the four inputs plus role. Each week’s tape goes on the ledger and carries into the next one — Week 1 through the season — so the model adjusts from what actually happened, not the pregame card.