The model
Likelihood is the price.
Polymarket’s own site is built to take a bet. Prime Time Grid is built to sit on a book. Band the tape by payout. Size in dollars. Mark to the live mid. Keep a clean P&L on this login. Fills lift the real ask and hit the real bid. The Grid does not place live orders, hold keys, or print money.
- 01
The tape
Live events, filtered by category and by implied YES. Longshots pay most of a dollar. Heavy favorites pay nickels. Sort by volume, move, or end time. Watch whether a 60–80% favorite still pays 20–40¢ before you size it.
- 02
The book
Bid, ask, depth, and a dollar ticket. Paper capital starts at $10,000. Minimum clip is $1. The ticket is USD, not shares. A contract at 80¢ implied YES pays 20¢ if it hits — that identity is the whole model.
- 03
The lock
The scanner hunts complement mispricing: YES ask plus NO ask under a dollar. When both sides are offered cheap enough, the pair can be +EV after fees. That edge is rare, thin, and competitive. Quiet is the honest state.
- 04
Paper first
Cash, positions, fills, and equity stay on this login. Overlay a Polygon address to read live Polymarket positions. Reset the paper book when you want a clean run. Live order placement stays on Polymarket.
Questions
What is the model?
Likelihood is the price. A contract at 80¢ implied YES pays 20¢ if it hits. The Grid makes that identity visible so you are not buying a favorite that no longer pays.
What is a lock?
YES ask plus NO ask under a dollar after fees. Both sides offered cheap enough that the pair is +EV. That edge is rare, thin, and competitive. The scanner hunts it. It is not a promise.
Does this place live orders?
No. Fills are paper against live CLOB books. Live trading stays on Polymarket. Overlay a Polygon wallet read-only if you already have a live book.
Not affiliated with Polymarket or its operators. Paper trading only — not a broker and not investment advice.