The model
We do not start from the number.
DraftKings and FanDuel are books. Prime Time Grid is the board. A line is a consensus of money. A break is a collision of facts the money is slow to price: a high-ankle on Saturday, a CB on Achilles, a roof that will be closed, a left tackle who did not practice. That is the work.
- 01
Recent health
Practice participation, designations, and who is active but not themselves. The desk reads two wires: the ESPN injury list, and Rotowire when a team has already named the starter. An empty out list is not unconfirmed if Rotowire stamped the name — Penix, Sep 21. We are not affiliated with either. He started Thursday and threw 256. The debut under missed. A return is not a sit, and 300 is not a cap. Questionable is not healthy. Out is not a committee until the inactive list says so.
- 02
The field
Indoor or outdoor is a first-class input. Retractable roofs that will be closed count as indoor. Heat in Jacksonville is a rushing game. A calm 72° at MetLife is a passing night. Kickers depend on this more than any skill player.
- 03
Defense health
A unit’s reputation is last year. This week is who is walking in. Missing interior, missing edge, missing both starting safeties — those change usage on the other side more than a ranking does.
- 04
The break
Where 01–03 stack. Cooper Rush on the road against a healthy Steelers front is a break. Justin Herbert in a greenhouse against a secondary on IR is a break. We write those in English, then we rank the players they create.
- 05
The window
Afternoon is the public card. Sunday night and Monday night are Prime Time. Growth: early-window first ticket is the break — the TE, the backup-QB DST, the indoor tax — not the smash name everyone already started. Night is where the side and the volume can lead.
Projected scores on the Grid are ours. They are not a spread and they are not a total you should treat as a posted number. Prime score is a 0–100 blend of health, the field, defense, and role. The window decides which ticket leads. Each week’s tape goes on the ledger and carries into the next one — Week 1 through the season — so the model grows from what actually happened, not the pregame card. Fantasy is a different rule. A sheet is not a lineup until the posted salary fits the cap. Captain and MVP are stored at 1.5×. The sheet adds. A classic tag is not a showdown tag. A name that does not fit comes off.
Questions
Is there one price for every grid?
Yes. The house is $149 a month and it opens every grid, including college and Polymarket. The posted price moves to $199 a month as the desks keep getting built. A house started at $149 stays at $149 while that PayPal stays on. It is one month at a time. A single sport is still $10 a week and does not open the others. Polymarket alone is still $29 a month.
How does the Prime score work?
Prime score is a 0–100 blend of recent health, indoor or outdoor field, opponent defense health, and role. Projected scores on the Grid are ours — not a posted spread.
Does the model change during the week?
Yes. Finished games are graded. Live games are recast. Each week’s tape goes on the ledger and carries into the next week through the season.
Is this a sportsbook line?
No. A line is a consensus of money. We start from who is actually healthy, whether the stadium is indoor or outdoor, and which defense is walking in with holes.
Where is the ranked board?
On the member Grid. This page is how the model works. Access is $10 a week and football only.
Why is afternoon different from night?
Afternoon is the public card. Steam hits 60–90 minutes before a 1:00 ET kick. First ticket is the break — the TE, the backup-QB DST, the indoor tax — not the smash name everyone already started. Sunday night and Monday night are Prime Time. The side can lead.