Week 1 · 2026
The tape.
Six published Sunday hits, then Monday. Chase missed. Mahomes started and the Chiefs won 31–10. Walker was the smash. 199.5 passing yards missed. Week 1 is closed. Week 2 is on the Grid.
8 hits · 3 misses
Misses
Lead with what went wrong.
Miss
Mahomes 199.5+ pass yards
184. The 300 shade was right; the 199.5 floor was still too high for game one on grass.
Miss
Ja'Marr Chase
Published WR1. 2-12-0 on 4 targets. Knee scare cleared — that was not 8 looks. Tampa took the boundary.
Miss
Justin Herbert
Indoor smash, Chargers 14. Sack on 4th-and-goal. Late INT. Do not fade the arm next week — fade the script we invented.
Hits
Hit
Patrick Mahomes
Start cashed. Chiefs 31–10. 15-of-27, 184, 2 pass TDs, a rushing score. Shade 300 was the right tax.
Hit
Kenneth Walker III
23-173-1 plus a receiving TD. We published 15+ carries as a floor. He was the engine.
Hit
Mike Gesicki
The actual CIN collision. 5-78-1 on 7 targets. Chase was the published smash.
Hit
Trey McBride
9-95-1. Thirteen targets. Herbert's greenhouse was a miss; the TE was the offense.
Hit
Chris Olave
10-182. Joseph and Branch out. This was the model working: who is actually covered.
Hit
Jahmyr Gibbs
156 yards. Dome, Jordan out, receiving downs clean.
Hit
Steelers DST
20–13. Rush on grass vs a healthy front. The DST of the week cashed.
Hit
Isaiah Likely
Final: 8-78-2. Same TE rule, third building of the day.
Rules we carry
Into Week 2 and every week after.
- 01
The TE is the collision
When they take the WR1, the middle is open. Gesicki 5-78-1. McBride 9-95-1. Likely 8-78-2. Do not auto-assign the WR1 eight targets. Start the tight end in that building.
- 02
Active is not volume
Health clearance is table stakes. Chase was cleared and finished 2-12-0 on 4 targets. Nabers was active on an ACL return — Dart threw Likely. Coverage and script decide usage, not the injury report.
- 03
The field is a condition, not a box score
Indoor vs a gutted secondary was supposed to be Herbert 275. Chargers scored 14. McBride was the offense on the other sideline. Do not let the greenhouse write the stat line.
- 04
Backup QB on grass is a DST week
Two Falcons quarterbacks down. Rush on the road. Steelers 20–13. Talent at receiver does not survive the quarterback.
- 05
ACL opener: shade the smash, not the name
Mahomes is cleared, full week, no tag, at Arrowhead. He is one of the best to ever play. Game one after ACL/LCL on grass with the LT out is not 300 yards. It is also not a sit. Start him. Start Kelce if they take Rice.
Monday night · final
Chiefs 31, Broncos 10
Side cashed. Card was 27–20. Mahomes 15-of-27, 184, 2 pass TDs, 1 INT, a rushing score. Walker 23-173-1 plus a receiving TD. Kelce 3-71. Rice 2-19-1. Nix 131 and four sacks. Shade 300 was right. The floor carry was the smash.
Questions
Do you bury misses?
No. Week 1 Chase missed. Mahomes started and the Chiefs won 31–10. Walker was the smash. The miss stays on the tape.
Does the tape change the next week?
Yes. Rules carry: the TE is the collision, active is not volume, the field is a condition, shade the smash not the name.